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Headlines today on a national front said January home sales were down 7.2% but as most people are aware real estate is a local game, even hyper-local in many ways. Today's headlines were further broken down by region; the west was down approximately 5%. Earlier in the week from the California Association of Realtors sales were noted to be down 3% in January 2010.

I am not sure if you have ever thought about the language used in these stories. Words like bleak, surging, plunged are often used and mostly for effect.  Reality within a market can be a bit trickier to pin down. 
During my 21 plus years as a real estate professional several things have become crystal clear to me:

1.  Headlines are created to simply to sell, to generate views, readers or eyeballs as we say now days.

2.  Most successful people do not make decisions based on what " is" today, they are looking at 1, 3, 5 or 10 years down the road. The month to month numbers in many ways are noise, whether they are up or down. You have to look at trends, as well as looking at the most significant statistics. Savvy buyers look at potential, seeing beyond todays headlines toward the long term trends, and how today's price fits within the trend. Is it an attractive price or not, period.

3. Many times the Headline numbers are not the most important numbers to consider when buying or selling a home.

4. The single most important number to look at when you are trying to judge what direction home prices are likely to go is month's supply of inventory. This basic tenet holds true for most things of value. Supply and demand is the key factor. Below are graphs of months supply of inventory over the past year for San Diego homes and a graph showing the trends in the number of homes for sale for the past 12 months in San Diego real estate.

Note the graphs are for all price ranges in San Diego County.

As I mentioned earlier, to really know what is happening it is best to get hyper-local. Pricing and trends within price range, as well as zip code, city or even neighborhood. We can help you discover in a detailed report giving you the most significant information within the location or locations you are considering a purchase or sale.  For a free, no obligation report email me at Loren@CoastalHomeFinder.com to get your 21 page Real Estate Market Intelligence Report for your city or zip code. In the end the financial portion of the decision is just one factor and while it is a very important part of the puzzle, lifestyle is a big one as well. Get a professional to work with you to discover the reasons behind a purchase or a sale, then choose the best decision for your family.

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