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Headlines today on a national front said January home sales were down 7.2% but as most people are aware real estate is a local game, even hyper-local in many ways. Today's headlines were further broken down by region; the west was down approximately 5%. Earlier in the week from the California Association of Realtors sales were noted to be down 3% in January 2010.

I am not sure if you have ever thought about the language used in these stories. Words like bleak, surging, plunged are often used and mostly for effect.  Reality within a market can be a bit trickier to pin down. 
During my 21 plus years as a real estate professional several things have become crystal clear to me:

1.  Headlines are created to simply to sell, to generate views, readers or eyeballs as we say now days.

2.  Most successful people do not make decisions based on what " is" today, they are looking at 1, 3, 5 or 10 years down the road. The month to month numbers in many ways are noise, whether they are up or down. You have to look at trends, as well as looking at the most significant statistics. Savvy buyers look at potential, seeing beyond todays headlines toward the long term trends, and how today's price fits within the trend. Is it an attractive price or not, period.

3. Many times the Headline numbers are not the most important numbers to consider when buying or selling a home.

4. The single most important number to look at when you are trying to judge what direction home prices are likely to go is month's supply of inventory. This basic tenet holds true for most things of value. Supply and demand is the key factor. Below are graphs of months supply of inventory over the past year for San Diego homes and a graph showing the trends in the number of homes for sale for the past 12 months in San Diego real estate.

Note the graphs are for all price ranges in San Diego County.

As I mentioned earlier, to really know what is happening it is best to get hyper-local. Pricing and trends within price range, as well as zip code, city or even neighborhood. We can help you discover in a detailed report giving you the most significant information within the location or locations you are considering a purchase or sale.  For a free, no obligation report email me at Loren@CoastalHomeFinder.com to get your 21 page Real Estate Market Intelligence Report for your city or zip code. In the end the financial portion of the decision is just one factor and while it is a very important part of the puzzle, lifestyle is a big one as well. Get a professional to work with you to discover the reasons behind a purchase or a sale, then choose the best decision for your family.

Looking for a home in Carlsbad or Encinitas Check out these properties

 

http://www.coastalhomefinder.com/00A7E3

Alright we are three weeks into 2010 and here is what we know for sure. The talent filled San Diego Chargers will once again be watching the Super Bowl, instead of playing in it. That is a total bummer...

Mortgage interest rates have dipped again, after moving up the last few weeks of 2009. The bond market rallied last week and left mortgage rates back near 5% for 30 year loans.

Home inventory is low in San Diego, especially in the  starting price ranges in many zip codes throughout San Diego and the state of California. One thing to keep your eye on as a buyer or seller is as the season influx of listings hit the market, how long are they taking to sell?

If you follow the real estate market in North San Diego Coastal neighborhoods you may have noticed a few more homes trickling onto the market. (like the Carlsbad home pictured above, priced at $538,000) The good ones are selling quickly. (The home above is pending after less than 2 weeks on the market)  

In California, the supply of unsold homes is at a 5 year low, according to a recent Wall Street Journal article. In certain price ranges in the North San Diego Coastal real estate market inventory is very low. There have been numerous articles warning of the "Shadow Inventory" that will hit the market, but there is a chance that as these homes hit the market they will be sold quickly, due to the low levels of housing inventory in North San Diego Coastal communities.  

If you are looking for a pre-foreclosure or short sale check out these North San Diego Coastal home deals.

Looking for North San Diego Coastal detached homes under $700,000 check out some of these...

Some of the best buys in the North San Diego County Coastal home market right now are in the 1.5 million to 3 million dollar price-range, there is plenty of inventory in this price range check out some of these Great Buys Now

I hope your 2010 has started off well. If you are looking to buy to buy or sell a North San Diego Coastal home, give us a call, we are here to serve. Call Loren Sanders at (760) 602-1000.

 

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So I have taken an informal poll and most of the folks I have asked are glad 2009 is over. How about you? What will they have to say about 2008 & 2009 ten years from now when they write about the implosion of banks and financial fallout that took place in the following months? Stabilization has began and continued through the end of 2009, its been a crazy 18 months.... So, what has been learned? What questions should we be asking? What actions would be sound in 2010?

If you read or listen to the real estate experts, home prices are on the upswing in 2010 and prices are due to drop more. We are in for a double dip in real estate and we are in for a long slow recovery, in the housing market. If you have been thinking about buying or selling a home it is likely you have seen these stories. The funny thing about real estate is all of these scenarios are likely happen in 2010.

How can that be?

A mistake home buyers and sellers can make is listening to global advice or headlines in a highly localized market. The other is buying or selling for the wrong reasons. There are undoubtedly zip codes and neighborhoods that will go up in price this year, ones that will fall, ones that will stay the same and some that have been moving up that will fall back again. 

Now, what happened in 2009 in the North San Diego Coastal Real Estate market? Here it is in graphs and numbers. Get your PDF report here to see the trends that played out in 2009

There are some questions to consider whether you are buying or selling. Make sure to think about best case and worst case scenarios. What are the over-riding reasons for buying or selling and are they sound?Bounce them off a professional that will help test the rationale and help you discover if your intentions can be best reached buying or selling. It is possible that buying or selling in 2010 is not the right course of action. If it is the right decision, make sure you get the representation you deserve.

Have you seen the TV commercial that features people asking all kinds of questions at a restaurant to a waiter? Then they flash to the same person at a doctor's appointment and suddenly they cannot think of any questions. Don't buy or sell a home without making sure you are doing the right thing for you, with the right representative.  Here are three final questions you might consider.

 

1. Why are you the right agent to help me?

2. Can I cancel our listing/buying relationship if I am unhappy with your service?

3. What tools will you use to help me accomplish my goals?

Check out these North San Diego Coastal real estate Deals (click here)

http://www.coastalhomefinder.com/00A605

The median price for all North County home sales - attached and detached - decreased 1.35% in

November 2009 from October 2009, to $370,000. 

Detached homes in North County rose 1.45 percent, from October 2009 to November

2009, from $430,000 to $436,250. Detached home prices OUTSIDE North County decreased 1.4%

from October 2009 to November 2009, from $355,000 to $349,900. 

The countywide median price of homes sold decreased from $380,000 in October 2009

to $378,950 in November 2009 and was up 11.62% from the November 2008 number.

 

The median price OUTSIDE North County for single-family homes rose 7.66 percent from the

$325,000 a year ago.

Attached home prices in North County increased during November 2009 by 5.54%,

from $239,250 a month earlier to $252,500.

Non-North County attached home prices increased 2.44% in November 2009; from

$205,000 to $210,000.

North County attached homes increased 40.28% from $180,000 a year ago.

Median days-on-market for single-family detached homes in North County remained at

35 days in November 2009. The number of North County single-family homes sold fell 18.13% last

month, from 772 to 632. There was a year-to-year increase of 9.15% for home sales in November 2009 compared to November 2008

For several months, the California and local housing markets have been experiencing a

sales rebound as a result of low interest rates, a continuing supply of distressed

properties coming to market, and a continuing reduction in the fear factor on the part of

prospective homebuyers.

Sales of new homes are down significantly because home-building activity has

all but stopped completely.

Meanwhile, 2010 will see a steady stream of sales of resale homes, driven by

distressed properties at the low end of the market, coupled with moderate homeprice

appreciation.

The statewide median-home price is expected to rise 3.3 percent in 2010 over this year, distressed

properties expected to account for nearly one-third of the sales in 2010,inventory will be relatively lean.

Expect interest rates to climb next year from about 5.2 percent to 5.7 percent on average.

While demand from first-time buyers and low-end properties will continue throughout

next year, sales could be impacted if discretionary sellers do not return to the market by

the second-half of the year. 

The wild cards for 2010 include foreclosures, loan modifications, the labor

market, the worsening state budget crisis, and the actions of the federal

government.

Information From North San Diego County Association of Realtros HomeDex tm

See Bargain North San Diego Coastal Homes Here

 

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There were some very interesting points raised in this discussion today on CNBC. What do you think about the points the CNBC reporters were making? What about those made by Professor Brent White from the University of Arizona in his recent research paper ?

The lead in from the CNBC host was an interesting attempt to sensationalize Professor White's observations. Professor Brent White's basic point was corporate America and home owners are living by two different sets of rules. It is clear from all the bailout and intervention, there are two sets of rules. Financial institutions were given trillions of dollars and yet many of the banks have been unresponsive and unhelpful in countless situations with the average borrower. My thinking on this situation has changed over time due to the lack of good faith coming from bailed out banks. There is a story in the bible about a debtor that's large debt was forgiven only for that man to be harsh with someone owing him a much smaller amount of money. It did not go well for the harsh lender in that parable. It might be wise for the many "bailed out banks" to read Matthew 18.

There were 3 CNBC reporters pointing out why Professor White was wrong & they did a poor job in my opinion. I am curious to see what people think about this interview, lenders and borrowers alike. Also, was it just me, or were the looks and words coming from Michelle Caruso-Cabrera over the top? She said banks are paying too by absorbing big losses. This is true, but they have been given trillions of tax payers money with very few strings attached and they were the ones offering and approving these loans.

From a ground level perspective: In many of the short sale situations I have worked on representing home buyers & sellers alike, the banks are very slow to answer short sale request. They are very slow to answer loan modification request and it is unfortunate because everyone is suffering from the lack of commitment from lenders to accept their portion of the blame in these situations. 

There is plenty of blame to go around. In some cases, loan officers helped people select loans that were very risky & lenders made loans they should never have made. Buyers bought homes they should not have purchased and real estate agents sold homes to folks that would have been better off with smaller homes or renting. There are many borrowers that simply bought at a high price and are stuck in a bad situation, maybe a lost job or? There are many good people being hurt.

Obviously assigning blame is easy. The hard part is fixing the problem.

A couple things that come to mind are simply to make any financial firm that accepted tarp money hire enough people to get through the massive number of loan modifications and short sales that need to be completed. When a bank has been presented with a viable short sale package from a borrower the lender should be required to do an appraisal and give a price they will accept based on the market value. (If this were to happen banks would get a higher price for short sales) Also, some rules of the game would be helpful. Banks should also give borrowers and real estate agents the exact criteria they will use to accept or deny a short sale and make a commitment to have them closed in a timely manner. (This would help the banks net more money from the sale as well)

Real Estate agents should be required to be educated on short sales through some standard process and be certified to work these files. I am sure there are many more good ideas on what could be done to move through these issues and I would love to hear your thoughts...post it here or email me.

 

 

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